MARKET TRENDS OUTLOOK (FOR TRADERS)

The Indian Stock Exchanges ultimately witnessed the long waiting spike from 9000 mark (Nifty) to 9300 mark with the support of Banking Sector with an increase around 1000 points in Bank Nifty. The Indian Banks have reacted against the RBI’s cut down in repo rate and reverse repo rate by 0.40% in order to create more liquidity in the system.    The Nifty remained bullish due to some other factors also including one mentioned above, such as FDI and DII increased their investment enormously.   It is also to be noted that, some of the major sector have been relaxed from lockdown in order to start the economic activities in phased manner.   One of the major factor supporting Nifty is DOW and Nasdaq alongwith US Tech market remained in positive territory.   Whereas dollar index is also at downward trend created spike in Indian Rupees which additionally supported banking sector.     The Nifty may witness some corrections on 27.05.202...

U.S. stock futures indicated a powerful open for Wall Street on Tuesday after a long holiday weekend, as investors seized on fresh coronavirus vaccine news and signs that global economies are slowly starting to crawl back from the pandemic shutdown. Investors were focusing on signs of life in the global economy as well as news of the gradual removal of economic restrictions related to COVID-19 and signs that Americans are beginning to feel safe enough to travel and congregate in larger groups. US stock futures also rose after Americans crowded onto packed beaches in Florida, Maryland, Georgia, Virginia and Indiana for the Memorial Day weekend.  Many states  have begun lifting restrictions on businesses and public spaces. Dow futures  were up   490 points, or around 2%. Futures for the S&P and Nasdaq added 1.9%.

Oil and gas companies, as well as the retail industry, are the worst hit sectors in the COVID-19 pandemic that swept through businesses in Texas, bankruptcy and restructuring is reported.   Oil and gas and the retail sector had a whole lot of stress even before COVID-19.   Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has  tasked the government with implementing a set of measures aimed at supporting the oil industry for the duration of the OPEC+ production cut agreement.   As part of the OPEC+ deal, Russia pledged to cut its production to 8.5 million bpd in May and June from a February 2020 baseline of some 11 million bpd, which translates into more than 2 million bpd, or by 19 percent.   Apart from the above, and growing oil demand across the globe the US Crude Oil inventory has shown the figure higher than the forecast.   Some of the oil importing countries like India is estimating more demand even during the times of lockdown.       The crude oil...

The Indian Stock market plunges to 9040 mark (Nifty) due to slowdown in economic activities in the entire country even after some relaxation in the lockdown 4.0.   The domestic airlines started operation on Monday though some of the states have not shown their preparedness and are in the favour of extending their restriction till month end.   On the other hand there is a constant rise of Covid-19 cases, putting enormous pressure on market activities which is also one of the major reasons for current economic slowdown apart from international economic conditions.   As it is clearly seen that the market has already observed the bottom out and is very much anticipated to witness steep hike in the coming days.   It is also to be noted that  banking sector has not shown any indication of break through.   Under these circumstances banking sector is over due to give sharp upward movement within few days.   The Nifty is expected to go up around 9200 ma...

The Indian Stock Market indicates improvement since opening up of economic activities in the entire country.   Lockdown 4.0 is a partial lockdown and many manufacturing and service sector, retail shops etc. have been allowed to start their businesses.   The domestic airlines and around 200 trains have also been allowed to start their functioning with some precautionary measures and restriction.   Many industries in New Delhi resumed their routines, the government offices and private sectors were allowed to operate with 50% officials in the entire country.    The sign of improvement has encouraged the stock market positively.   Nifty index is trading around 9040 mark and is expected to go in upward direction.   As you can also see in the chart on the right hand upside corner, the percentage of buyers are around 87% whereas the sellers are only 13%.   During the week end it is very much expected that Nifty might close around 9400 mark positiv...

For important data will impact the Dollar Index projection and will lead to fluctuation in the forex market Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.   This week Forecasted figure is 2400K as compare to previous figure of 2981K.   These data were released by Department of Labour. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.   Released by Federal Bank of Philadelphia Forecasted figure – 41.5 whereas as compare to the previous figure of – 56.6 Impact on EUR EUR is trading at 1.1000 from 1.0980 is e...

For important data will impact the Dollar Index projection and will lead to fluctuation in the forex market Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.   This week Forecasted figure is 2400K as compare to previous figure of 2981K.   These data were released by Department of Labour. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.   Released by Federal Bank of Philadelphia Forecasted figure – 41.5 whereas as compare to the previous figure of – 56.6 Impact on GBP Great Britain Pound is trading at...

The yellow metal has reached nearby the peak level of around 1745 mark which is nearly 7 year high level.   Due to current pandemic situation gold is trading strongly whereas more than 60% of traders are in selling position.    It is accepted fact that the gold is well known for safe to trade since it’s movement are range bound, thus it is also called safe heaven and considering this aspect it is normally assumed that it may move down to 1700 mark or so due excessive profit booking.  On the other side the gold is also expected to move upward about 1780 mark.   It is also to be noted that some of the analyst at this moment are worried about inflation and deflation concern which is the main cause of concern among investor intending to buy more safe investments.  Apart from the other aspects few things are to noted that the global geopolitical situation particularly between USA and China playing vital role in increasing the demand of gold...

The German Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index gauges the six-month economic outlook. A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts .   The data indicates a strong upward trend of EUR as compare to USD.   The actual figure is indicated by the ZEW release is 51 mark and forecast was around 32 whereas the previous figure was 28 proposes strong buying indication, but it also to be noted that around 90% are in favour selling Eur as compare to JYP.   The performance of EUR clearly shows deep decline against JYP in today’s trading session.    After imposing lockdown during the current pandemic by Japanese government, now the government of Japan has decided to give some relaxation and initiated to start some economic activities, thus it resulted in JYP trending in upward direction.   The EUR/JYP is ri...

The German Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index gauges the six-month economic outlook. A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts .   The data indicates a strong upward trend of EUR as compare to USD.   The actual figure is indicated by the ZEW release is 51 mark and forecast was around 32 whereas the previous figure was 28 which clearly proposes strong buying indication in the long run, but it also to be noted that around 60% are in favour selling Eur as compare to USD in today's trading session.   The performance of EUR depends more on USD index which is anticipated to go in upward trend which may restrict EUR to incline further in today’s trading session.    The EUR/USD is right now trading around 1.0940 and is expected to trend downward in the opening session of NY Stock Exchanges and will c...

Today data from Census Bureau of America will be released in which 1 million new building permit issuance is estimated forecast as compare to the previous data of 1.35 million permits.  The Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government pertaining to the month of April 2020. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.   This is also considered to be an important data which will lead the USD in either direction according to the actual number.    The higher than the expected  figure will create an positive impact whereas lower than expected figures will create negative impact that the USD will be bearish.  Subsequently other currencies will give vice versa impact.  The dollar index will also depend on some other factors also at the later part of today’s trading session.  That is Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell is to testify on the economic outlook for the...

The WTI Crude May month contract will expire today and it is expected that, though the expiry   would not be affecting much, the correction could be around 0.50% - 1%, since the crude oil inventories are reduced by cutting oil production upto 10% as agreed upon by OPEC member countries including Russia.   The worldwide consumption has also started though the storage capacity is fully utilized and subsequently demand is also increasing slowly due to relaxation in lockdown by few oil importing countries.    On Friday last week crude oil went up to around 30 dollar mark and continued the upwarad trend on Monday and went upto 33 dollars.   But it is expected that oil prices may come down to around 30 dollars due to profit booking but if demand continues the correction will not sustain for much time and the prices will persist on higher side

The Indian Stock Market has noticed a sudden spike, Nifty after sliding down to 8800 mark today, the market bounced back to 9050 mark, since the foreign investors are attracted from various proposals made by the Finance Ministry with respect to the various booster package announced recently and due to country's partial lockdown.    Apart from this one of the major factor for the sudden spike in Nifty is that Nasdaq and Dow 30 were remained bullish throughout the trading session.    This rally might continue on Tudesday also and the level   of 9150 mark or more can be witnessed.    Again the banking heavy weight shares like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and other few private banking and NBFC sector may go up by 3% to 5% pulling the Nifty in upward direction.   The rally in the Nifty will be a range bound spike and a steep correction can be noticed thereafter.    It is also predicted that the stock like ITC and other...

The gold which is also called yellow metal has reached the peak level of around 1760 mark which is nearly second highest historic peak level.   The historic highest level is about 1800 mark and the gold has attained this level only once.   Today, morning after attaining the 1760 level, it started downward trend, plunging around 30 dollars due to current pandemic situation which resulted in weak demand and supply.   In particular, demand from Asia began to return, at a time when primary miners, secondary refiners and inventory holders located in South Africa, Europe and North America were reducing activity levels and encountering logistical difficulties in making shipments.   Moreover it is also assumed that, its ETF value (Exchange Traded Fund) is more, like excessively hypothetical value, since large number of trading accounts have been opened during current pandemic circumstances and highly traded electronically and has no comparison with actual demand and suppl...

The Indian market further loses confidence as expected due to the reason of lockdown 4.0 started in India from Monday.   It is also stated that, due to the lack of market liquidity the investors are very cautious in the   market.   It may further go down due to lack of demand and supply chain that is upto the level of 8600 mark.     This also shows that the booster dose of Rupees 20 Lakh Corers announced recently by the Indian Prime Minister, Shri. Narendra Modi is not proving to be much effective on these markets.   It is also envisaged that during the current pandemic covid-19, there is chance of increase in Covid-19 infection due to some relaxation in the lockdown proposed by Central   Government and some of the State Governments.    Due to the present crisis and continuous   increase in unemployment rate putting more pressure on the Indian Economy.     Indian stock Market Nifty is trending in the downward directi...

The GBP/USD is continuously moving towards its support level of 1.2050 mark due to the current pandemic over the globe and economic slowdown.   It would not be surprising, if GBP bounces back to its nearest resistance level of 1.2350 mark and thereafter 1.2500 mark.   On the Currently situation of worldwide lockdown and slow economic growth, USD is considered to be the best and safe currency worldwide and this may the reason that GBP in comparison to USD is continuously falling down.   If the GBP breaks its support level of 1.2050 mark, then the matter would more worrying and GBP will remain sluggish for another 2 week s.    As today, there is no important data is to be published by the United Kingdom, the movement will be quite volatile.   It is also imperative to state that more than 85% buyers are waiting to buy GBP/USD on the better notes.  On the other side, it is also noted that the prospect of negative interest rate is putting pr...

The current pandemic Covid-19 affected the Oil Market tremendously.   Brent Oil surges to 21% and WTI Crude Oil plunges 45%.   The crude oil is now trading around 29 dollars per barrel mark, which is 18 year record low level.   During the month of April 2020 OPEC member countries have agreed upon to cut down the production by 10%.   Russia also agreed to cut down the production substantially.   It is also estimated that overall GDP may go down to 6%,   since GDPs of China, India, Russia like countries may go down to 5-8% as compared to previous quarter.   The oil consumption in the entire globe has declined due to the current pandemic covid-19 and lockdown, which also impacted the demand.   Further, it is envisaged that oil production has to be further reduced due to lack of storage capacity, since excess supply and less market consumption.   The countries like China and India which are considered to be the major importers of crude oil...

GBP/USD is trading near its support level that is around 1.2 100 mark.   As we all know that Great Britain’s economy has capability to regain its stability quickly.   Gbpusd was   trading around 1.2500 mark few weeks back.   Due to the current pandemic lockdown the Great Britain has suffered economic instability resulting in weak demand and supply chain.   It is also ascertained that the unemployment rate has tremendously increased in Great Britain by almost 50% where as the earning capacity of any individual in Great Britain has substantially increased by almost 50%.   The people of Great Britain are strongly opposing the lockdown imposed on them.    It is also noticed that the dollar index has increased substantially in the previous week resulted in downward Trend of GBP.   It is also envisage that the GBP will regain the mark of 1.2500 in the coming weeks.   Since there is no economic data are anticipated on Monday gbpu...

I ndian stock market loses confidence over the period of lockdown due to lack of market liquidity.    The investors are very cautious that the market may further go down due to lack of demand and supply.   The Indian Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi has announced   a financial package of rupees 20 lakh crore to boost the economy.   During the current pandemic covid-19 more than 35% working class have lost their jobs especially the working labours have lost their livelihoods due to the current countrywide lockdown.    Indian stock Market Nifty is trending in the downward direction and have settled around 9060 mark last week.   The booster dose announced by the Finance Minister as a part of financial package for various MSMEs may have positive effect in mere future but sign of improvement is seen.   Stock Market Nifty may witness further downside around 8600 mark in the coming weeks.   Many heavyweight scripts especially in b...

The movement of gold may trend more aggressively in the coming months.  The gold recorded around 1740 USD last week and rose by 6.5% in the previous week, many investors have booked profit in order to safeguard their positions.  As per the Fed Chairman Mr. Powell revealed that his early review regarding the jobless claim is expected to be much more higher than its forecast, which may restrict the gold to trend around 1700 USD initially.  It has been often noticed that the movement of the gold use to be range bound whereas the current scenario indicates that it may and also is very much anticipated to go up further upto 1850 USD in the coming month.  Since we all are aware that, due to this current pandemic and amid tension between USA and China, consequential trade war between these two countries may impact economic imbalance resulting in high volatility in the entire market.  We have also noticed during the month of Oct-Dec 2019, the USA and China were in...